The War in Ukraine: 8 Months Later
Credit: Matti Karstedt, Pexels
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has entered its 8th month and the conflict has completely transformed from what we saw in the opening months of February and March. In the early onset of the war, we saw the 5th largest army in the world invading a country reeling from years of political instability and protest. To everyone, it almost seemed impossible for Ukraine to win a full-scale war with Russia, but when the invasion happened on Feb. 24 it was something that no one truly expected. It was genuinely baffling what happened within the first month of the invasion: Russia failed to capture the capital city of Kyiv and the Ukrainians surprisingly held back against their invaders. Events such as the sinking of the Moskva and the recapture of major cities such as Izium have shown the astounding will of the Ukrainian people. However, events such as the fall of Mariupol and the Bucha Massacre show the major effect this war had on Ukrainians. As of the beginning of November, the Ukrainians are pushing into more of the captured territory in the south and east of the country, as the long and frigid winter is on the horizon.
We are currently at a crossroads during this war, as this conflict could go hundreds of different ways. To discuss the major complexities of this conflict I spoke with Dr. Juris Pupcenoks, a Professor of Political Science at Marist, and an expert on international relations. In our conversation, we spoke on many different topics involving the current politics and discourse of the War in Ukraine. However, the conversation turned into a discussion of the implications of the conflict on Russia, the rise of conflict from Iran to Taiwan and the potentiality of world conflict arising.
Our conversation started with one of my biggest questions: What is the current state of Russia and how will this conflict affect the future of Russia?
Russia historically feels like the black sheep of Europe, a country always catching up, punching above its weight and somehow making it out intact, but extremely battered and bruised in conflicts such as World War II, the Napoleonic Wars and the Great Northern War. Russia has been shaped into an incredibly strong state that whenever it is backed into a corner and seems to be on its way down, it somehow makes it out. Nevertheless, this situation might be different. I see both the military and political situation that Russia has put itself in to be dire.
However, Dr. Pupcenoks explained that there is still a potential for the conflict to sway in the Russians' favor. “The longer this war drags out, the more the Western will to support Ukraine will be tested. And it has been tested, even like in American midterm elections. Republicans are talking about support, [or ] no longer supporting Ukraine, or supporting Ukraine less … the longer times go by, the more elections there are, this winter is going to be very painful for Europeans. And Putin could just wait out until Europeans don't want to support Ukraine anymore.”
To add to our discussion about the current state of Russia, we spoke about the failure of the military in the invasion. This invasion is one of the greatest military blunders seen in the last century, and the amount of money, equipment and lives lost by the Russians is staggering. Now with the administration of a draft by the Russian government, it seems their military has consistently gone downhill throughout this entire war.
Dr. Pupcenoks shared his thoughts on the current Russian military, stating, “... the expectation was that the Russian military was rebuilt after the Cold War. During the Cold War [the military was] good. The 1990s, early 2000s, it was falling apart. Then like around 2008, 2012, it was rebuilt and then in 2014, it was further rebuilt. And now the expectation was that it could perform. It didn't.” However, there was no single entity to blame. We couldn’t find out exactly how the Russian military underperformed so greatly, except with the reasoning that Russia hasn’t been in any major conflicts since the Cold War and only minor conflicts in Georgia and Chechnya. Thus, the Russian army wasn’t prepared for a large conflict such as the invasion of Ukraine.
I then asked Professor Pupcenoks where he saw the future of the fighting between the Ukrainians and Russians headed, providing one possible scenario in the coming months. “… The question is how long can this united Western front towards Russia continue and can it continue?” he said. “One potential outcome of this war could be Ukraine in southern Ukraine taking Kherson and all that region holding up to the Dnieper River. And then that's how it ends, and then you have a frozen conflict.”
Professor Pupcenoks added, “I think this is where you really could have World War I conflict, meaning both sides just dig in. There's maybe less support for Ukraine, hypothetically, from Europeans. There's also less interest in the Russian side to fight like morale is going down. So, it's just kind of continued like that for decades. There are precedents for these kinds of conflicts going for decades in the former Soviet space. I think about Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan.”
When going on to discuss other potential scenarios, another big question appears if Russia were to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. This has recently dominated world news as Vladimir Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons in the conflict. This was one of the major questions that I was curious about in my discussion: What are the actual chances of a nuclear weapon being used in Ukraine?
“In war, you never know how things end because the goals, the aims, approaches constantly change,” Professor Pupcenoks responded. “I think the potential for Russian use of nuclear weapons, the smaller ones, is there, but it's small … Putin, he's [a] calculating kind of person … he might calculate that the loss of pace and potential pain from being overrun by Ukrainians is a lesser pain than using nuclear weapons”.
The conflict in Ukraine isn’t the only major global event happening now affecting our world. The recent rise in tensions between China and Taiwan, the social unrest in Iran and the ongoing threat of North Korea are just a few of the potential conflicts occurring at the same time as the invasion of Ukraine.
Professor Pupcenoks described the importance of the conflict on an international level. “Russia is really weakened in the Ukraine War, this is actually a good thing in terms of future conflicts that other countries, I hope, are learning that if you start a war it doesn’t mean you will win.”
In our current age, we have been gifted with the greatest era in human history. With affordable water and food, many societies are pushing for equality, and the rise of technology has progressed humanity further than we ever could have imagined. However, with these boundless gifts, it seems that we struggle to push forward and move past our ancient fixation on conquering and bloodlust. In a moment so crucial, with the decline of the global environment and the rise of global populations, it seems that this is a monumental moment for the future of humanity, and the invasion of Ukraine and various potential conflicts around the world seem to all be connected. Where does the future of humanity lie? That’s impossible to say, but today’s events will dictate our future, become our history and change the future of our world, for better or worse.