A Year Into Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Retrospective & Future Analysis

Visuals of destroyed military equipment from city just outside Kyiv, Ukraine. Photo via mannhai on Flickr.

Feb. 24, 2023 will mark one year since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in an unprecedented act of aggression in decades. 

Many unanticipated this invasion by the Russians, given the reassurances from Russian officials that an invasion would not occur. Articles were published on the subject with explanations of why Russia won’t invade, and a prior article in the Marist Circle reflected a similar attitude. 

Despite the reassurances and predictions, Russia made its advance into Ukrainian territory in three locations across the shared border in what was called “a special military operation.” According to an article by Reuters published on Feb. 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a speech in the early morning with explosions and gunfire being reported shortly after the conclusion of his address. 

Sanctions were swiftly placed against Russia by the United States and other western allies with individual sanctions placed on individual Russian leaders as well as on oil and gas imports. This was in an effort to stifle Russia’s ability to fund its military which has been effective in the later part of the war according to CNN. 

The war has taken an immense toll on the people of Ukraine since the invasion began with staggering numbers of dead, injured, missing and displaced people. According to data from Reuters, an estimated 42,000 people have died, 52,000 have been injured, and around 15,000 people are reported missing. A humanitarian crisis has occurred due to the onslaught of Russian aggression with data from the UNHRC placing the number of refugees across Europe at a staggering 7.8 million. Photos and videos provide an even better look into the situation and offer people a glimpse into what is happening to the civilians.

Thus far, the Ukrainian military has been successful in defending its territory through effective means of military operations and Western aid. The Russian army is in far worse shape as they’ve struggled consistently with insufficient military equipment, battlefield losses, and low morale among its troops.  

Despite Vladimir Putin’s reported confidence going into this war, the Russians have sustained losses consistently throughout the war which is signified by the statistic of 200,000 Russian soldiers dead or injured during the duration of this war according to the New York Times. However, the Russian army has begun its spring offensive and is deploying new conscripts to fight as of January this year, according to Politico.

It is easy to reflect on this war with the devastating effect of the fighting that has occurred in the region, but it is difficult to gauge what will come next.

Dr. Juris Pupcenoks, Associate Professor of Political Science at Marist College, has written and spoken about the war in Ukraine since the start of this war close to a year ago. When looking at the extent of the war thus far, Pupcenoks notes, “We are asking the same question as we did a year ago. What exactly happened? Why exactly did he do it?”

It is difficult to pin down a reason why Putin authorized the invasion. It is easy now to see the effects of this war, especially the handling of the war that Pupcenoks stresses with Ukraine coping remarkably well.

“The biggest takeaway is how unexpectedly successful Ukraine has been in terms of being able to rebut Russian attacks, and [late last year], retake some of the territories, and how resilient the Ukrainian military is, which nobody expected that they would last- people, analysts, experts all around the world would expect Ukraine to fall in a matter of a week, and none of that has happened” Pupcenoks explains. 

In the last year, it has been plain to see the failures of the Russian army on the hand. Pupcenoks points out, “Russia, in the first couple of months, lost more soldiers than 10 years in Afghanistan” when the Russians invaded in 1979. 

In retrospect, this war in Russia-Ukraine is unprecedented in several ways, which Pupcenoks stresses in his review of the war thus far.

“So we haven't seen anything like this. This is the first time since I think the 1970s or so that one country takes over land from another country for purpose of keeping it permanently” Pupcenoks points out. Furthermore, he notes how this is the first challenge to the world order that the international community exists under now surrounding agreements with the United Nations.

Hindsight is 20-20 in situations like this. Assessments can be made as to the actions made by the parties involved, but the same cannot be said for what has not happened yet; what is left to be seen.

“People who will try to give you a clear answer on how this is going to end by looking into the crystal ball, I think they're wrong. You can talk about different scenarios, how this could end, it could be this, this, this, or this, but it all is all fluid” Pupcenoks elaborates.

“I think the best we can do is talk about part two possible scenarios and maybe try to sign what's the likelihood of them happening. But then again, how do you calculate that?”